Recompound × EOA · Before the talk

Recompound
introduction.

Three tables on compounding · the Indonesian market · where we come in.

1
Compounding · 1 of 3

10% return

Rp100,000,000 invested, compounding at 10% a year.

After 43 years
Rp6,024,006,916
About 60× the money. Almost half of it arrives in the last seven years.
Illustrative only. Not a return projection. Before fees and taxes.
2
Compounding · 2 of 3

15% return

Rp100,000,000 invested, compounding at 15% a year.

After 43 years
Rp40,738,697,088
Nearly seven times the 10% result — from five extra points a year.
Illustrative only. Not a return projection. Before fees and taxes.
3
Compounding · 3 of 3

20% high risk

Rp100,000,000 invested at 20% a year, with a 50% drop every 10 years.

Memo · 20% every year
Rp253,976,526,949
What the same path would have been worth without the four bad years.
Four bad years turn 20% a year into 10.6% a year. It ends at Rp7.7 miliar — barely more than the boring 10% table.
Illustrative only. Not a return projection. Before fees and taxes.
4
What we do

Our first job is not losing.

The three tables say one thing
20% sounds twice as good as 10%.

On paper, doubling your target return should change your life.

With a crash every decade, it becomes 10.6%.

Four bad years out of 43 cost 97% of what the money would have been worth.

Aiming higher didn't help. Not losing would have.

The gap between the tables is not skill at picking winners. It is damage control.

A loss costs more than it looks
So our first question is never "how much can we make?" It is "how much can we lose?"
5
The Indonesian market · 1 / 3

Big drops here are not rare.

2020 · Covid
−37.5%
6,300 → 3,938

The fall took about three weeks. Trading was halted six times in March alone.

It took roughly seven months to climb back near 6,000.

2026 · This year
−41.8%
9,134 → 5,318

From the record high on 20 January to a five-year low in June. Five months.

At 6,599 today, the index still needs to rise 38% to get back to January.

Two falls of about 40% in six years. The cause is different every time. The shape is not.
IHSG. Covid: 2019 close 6,299.53 to 3,937.63 on 24 Mar 2020. 2026: record 9,134 on 20 Jan to a five-year low in June; 6,599 on 10 Sep 2026.
6
The Indonesian market · 2 / 3

Buy and hold is not always the answer here.

The best blue chip in the country
Bank BCA
Rp10,950peak, September 2024
~Rp6,400today
−42%for anyone who bought at the top and held

Nothing went wrong at the bank. Deposits grew, credit quality held, dividends kept coming. The price still went down by more than 40% and stayed there for two years.

And the market itself
In June, the index traded at levels last seen in 2020.

Five years of gains, gone in five months.

A holder who bought in January is still down about 25%.

Nine months of waiting, with no idea how much longer.

Time in the market is not the same as attention.

Buy and hold assumes you can sit through anything. Most people cannot, and most people should not have to.

Great companies still hand you bad entry prices. Here, when matters as much as what.

BBCA all-time high Rp10,950 on 24 Sep 2024; ~Rp6,400 in mid-Sep 2026. Over longer horizons BBCA has compounded well — the point is the drawdown, not the business.
7
The Indonesian market · 3 / 3

Most people here buy on a tip.

A friend, a relative, a group chat, a name that is running. It is the most common way to pick a stock in Indonesia — and it fails in three separate ways.

1

You have no plan for the fall.

A tip tells you what to buy. It never tells you when to get out. When the position drops 40%, it is stressful, it is personal, and most people sell at the bottom. That is where the permanent damage happens — exactly the damage the tables showed.

2

Doing it properly is a second job.

Filings, earnings calls, ownership data, foreign flows, policy announcements. Following even twenty companies seriously takes hours a day, every day. Most working professionals simply do not have those hours.

3

You cannot check it, and nobody calls you back.

Good information is hard to come by, and you have no way to verify whether it is real. If the story changes, or the deal is cancelled, you are the last to find out — usually from the price.

None of these is a knowledge problem. They are all a time-and-process problem.

8
Where we come in

Indonesia can build real wealth.
It just asks for more attention than most people can give it.

Downside first

Every position starts with the question of how much it can lose, and what we do when it does.

Full-time attention

Filings, ownership data, flows and policy are our working day, not your evening.

A process, not a tip

A written reason to own it, and a written reason to sell it, decided before the price moves.

We cannot promise you a good year. We can promise you will never be surprised by what you own.

For discussion purposes only. Not investment advice, and not an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not indicate future results.
9
Recompound × EOA · Part 1 of 3

The Returns You
Never Keep.

Toby Limanto
Co-founder
Budi Ryan
Co-founder · Licensed Investment Advisor
Not investment recommendation · for educational purposes only · we do not guarantee full accuracy of the information presented. Clients who joined before February 2025 have a personal arrangement with Toby and Budi; clients from February 2025 onward are clients of Budi Ryan (Penasihat Investasi perorangan). Recompound is undergoing pendaftaran izin as PI perseroan. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
10
The confession

Our returns are… boring.

What we earn
17–26% / year, gross
2022 (Aug–Dec) +6.2%
2023 +26.2%
2024 +25.3%
2025lost to IHSG that year+17.5%
2026 YTD +16.1%
What returns will make you stop scrolling
10× — 100×

Multibagger calls, "saham naik 100%", signal groups, crypto moonshots — loudest at the top of every bull market.

Next to that, our best year ever looks like a rounding error.

11
To be honest

Our returns aren't that important to you.
(They are to us.)

What's important to you is your returns.

12
This is measured, not anecdote

Same fund, two very different returns famous story — verify sourcing

Fidelity Magellan under Peter Lynch, 1977–1990
The fund compounded ≈29% a year for 13 years. Its average investor reportedly lost money. Same fund. Same years.
Mind the Gap
Morningstar — annual study, dollar-weighted vs total returns
morningstar.com →
Mutual fund flows and investor returns
Friesen & Sapp (2007), J. Banking & Finance — timing costs ≈1.5%/yr
read paper →
QAIB
Dalbar — Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, since 1994
dalbar.com →
And to be clear: nobody here is on trial. Not the influencers showing off their returns, and not the retail investors following them — we're not calling anyone reckless or naive. This is a common phenomenon: Peter Lynch was honest and brilliant, and his investors got the gap anyway. It's structural, not moral — and it has a name in the literature: the behavior gap. (The Magellan telling is famous but imperfectly sourced — the audited studies above show the same pattern.)
13
So we grade ourselves on exactly that number

Our customers' returns — not ours published snapshot · 7 Aug 2026

All-time return by join quarter — every cohort, oldest to newest
Mean with ±1 SD envelope · indexed to each client's starting portfolio (neutral to top-ups) · hover any quarter. The best cohorts aren't the lucky ones — they're the oldest ones.
Clients in profit
98.7%
Every client currently below zero joined Feb '26 or later — still in their first drawdown.
2026 YTD — clients vs IHSG
+11.7% vs −26.6%
In 2025 we made 17.5% and still lost to IHSG's 22.1%. We tell you which years we lose — that's the point.
Behavior, not talk
2.21×
Average client has topped up to 2.21× their initial commitment. Trust, measured in transfers.
We are not claiming to be Buffett. Our claim is narrower: the gap between our returns and our customers' returns is small. Bridging that gap is the product. Source: the same public API as recompound.id/performance — this slide refreshes itself when online.
14
Why the gap exists — before we close it, start with the mechanism you already know

Money arrives at the top, leaves at the bottom

One market cycle, with the crowd's money flows illustrative
Hover the markers. Same fund the whole way — the investor's return depends on when the money showed up.
Price▲ Money in▼ Money out

As entrepreneurs, you'd never run a business this way — buy inventory at peak COGS, liquidate at clearance prices. Nobody in this room needs "buy low, sell high" explained. So the real question of tonight: why does it keep happening — to smart people?

15
Our hypothesis

We care more about looking good
than being honest with ourselves.

"Toxic compassion is the prioritisation of short-term emotional comfort over everything else. Over truth, reality, actual long-term outcomes, flourishing, everything. It optimises for looking good, rather than doing good."

CHRIS WILLIAMSON — Modern Wisdom

Kids & screens · comfortable tonight, expensive later
Gorengan & health · "nggak ngaruh kok"
Your portfolio · →
Not a character flaw. Human — all of us, Recompound team included. The only question is when the instinct starts costing you.
16
Di restoran, sama temen: "bro, return saham lu berapa?"

Which portfolio — the one you remember,
or the one you have?

Mental accounting (Thaler, 1985; 1999): winners "count", unrealized losers "don't count until I sell — exit at breakeven." Everyone does this — it makes you human, not dishonest. The one honest number is the money-weighted return across everything. Figures illustrative.
17
Not IQ. Not information.

Analysis is free.
Behavior is still expensive.

Return investasi: 20% teknis · 80% psikologi.

QR — prompt pack
eoa-deck.recompound.id/prompts
Five prompts: understand a business, read its statements, value it, build your own Investing 101 curriculum, write a thesis.
No email wall. It still won't fix your returns.
18
Why it keeps happening

The Unteachable Lessons

Lessons that can't be transferred by instruction — they only land through experience. You already know a few:

Spend time with your parents.
Money won't make you happy.
Fame won't give you self-worth.
"You don't love them — you need their validation."
And the investing one: cut loss.
Loss aversion. You'd never put big money into a business without an exit strategy — yet in the portfolio, the exit strategy is hope. Harapan bukan strategi.

The learning cycle:

you hear the lesson→ you nod→ "won't apply to me"→ you experience it→ you repeat it→ you finally get it→ you warn others→ they nod…
19
Six forces · a quiz

Bias psikologinya apa? Tebak dulu, baru buka.

Answer bank: Greed · Fear · Loss aversion · Envy · Possibility effect · Exponential growth bias. Every one documented in peer-reviewed literature — citation on the flip. None of this is a character flaw; all of it is human default settings. Click a card or press 1–6 · 0 resets.
20
Five more forces · a quiz, ronde dua

Bias psikologinya apa? Lima lagi.

Answer bank: Confirmation bias · Overconfidence · Survivorship bias · Gambler's fallacy · Action bias. Same rule: every one documented in peer-reviewed literature, citation on the flip. Still not a character flaw, still human default settings. Click a card or press 1–5 · 0 resets.
21
What tonight was not: investing 101

Analysis got cheap. Behaving well got expensive.

The cost of knowing vs the cost of behaving, over time illustrative
Everything a balance sheet can teach you is now a prompt away. What isn't commoditised — and may never be — is behaving well while holding money. That's this series.
22
The open loop → Part 2
Tujuan investing, ujung-ujungnya
Numbuhin modal di atas risk-free rate — dengan risiko dan drawdown yang terukur.
Caranya: punya framework — apa pun itu — yang bisa kalian stick to jangka panjang. Tanpa framework, semua bias tadi kena. Dengan framework, kalian punya tempat balik.

Ini bukan ide baru. Di bidang mana pun yang hasilnya bisa diandalkan, yang sukses jalanin sistem, bukan mood:

Chain kopi lokal
Kopi Kenangan nggak jual kopi paling enak.
Yang dijual: SOP. Rasa sama di Jakarta dan di Surabaya, siapa pun barista-nya hari itu. Hasil konsisten datang dari sistem, bukan dari bakat orang di balik bar.
Bisnis F&B
Gramasi ditimbang, goreng pake timer, checklist buka-tutup.
Bumbu nggak dikira-kira, kematangan nggak pake feeling. Koki lagi bad mood pun rasanya sama. Kenapa uang kalian sendiri boleh improvisasi?
Atlet
Pelari maraton nggak lari sekuatnya tiap hari.
Program 16 minggu: easy run, long run, tapering. Hari lagi nggak mood, tetap jalan sesuai program. Yang latihan sesuai feeling: cedera, atau nggak finish.
Nge-gym
Resepnya gampang: kalori defisit + angkat beban rutin.
Semua orang udah tahu resepnya. Yang susah bukan ilmunya, tapi jalaninnya tiap minggu. Makanya membership gym nganggur, dan badannya tetap sama.
Investor ritel sering jadi satu-satunya "pemain" tanpa SOP.
Lalu heran kenapa hasilnya acak. Framework-nya bisa apa aja. Yang penting ada, tertulis, dan dijalani pas lagi nggak mood.
23
Before Part 2 — pick one

Homework (private — you won't have to show anyone)

The 5-minute version

List every position you're "waiting for breakeven" on.

Just the list. Bring it. That list is Part 2's opening scene.

The full audit (volunteers)

Compute your true all-in, money-weighted return.

Every account, every position, outside your business — including the ones that "don't count." The CAGR since you first held risk.

One number doesn't lie. Everything else on your brokerage app is a mood. This is for you, not for us.

24
What you walk away with tonight

The one honest number.
The eleven forces, named.
And there is hope — you saw the chart.

Part 2: engineering the fighting chance — the systems, not the willpower.

25
← → navigate · F fullscreen